Within weeks of US President Donald Trump, saying he wanted to make a deal with Kyiv in “Rare lands and other things”, it became clear that the US was not only interested in the critical minerals of Ukraine and the rare elements of land.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Kyiv on February 12 to submit an agreement to President Volodymyr Zelensky. After the Ukrainian President refused to sign, citing a lack of security guarantee in it, the details of the proposed agreement began to appear, setting a panic that the US was demanding a lot.
According to some reports and a leaked version of the agreement, the US was seeking a 50% interest for mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports and other infrastructure through a common investment fund. Such an agreement would potentially include some of the country’s largest companies, including state -owned oil and gas giants.
The proposal, especially for shares in the large oil and gas sector of Ukraine, has not had a good time. Reactions to the deal have included calling it “colonial”, and seeking to ask a place that was occupied to pay compensation, and for his ally.
“We are not a colony and there are no other examples that when the Allies demanded (this) in the middle of the war from their friends. The proposal eventually seems like reparations,” said Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a Ukraine MP.
The agreement has, however, is only likely in its early stages. It may be that the Trump administration began negotiations, demanding a lot in the hope that both sides will meet somewhere in the middle, said the President of the US Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, Andy Hunder, who is familiar with the deal.
“The new administration team entered as a bull at a store in China. So yes, of course, they will break some cups and tiles. “
Reuters reported on February 20 that the White House could choose a simplified deal with details listed below the line.
If a happy middle ground is found, business people in Ukraine and experts believe that the deal can be an opportunity to inject fresh capital into the Ukraine economy, especially some of its state -owned companies.
“Our meaning was that the (proposed) agreement would help professional fund managers bring better returns to state-owned enterprises-many of which have been mismanaged over the past number of years,” Hunder said.
An agreement that involves more than Ukraine mineral resources or rare soil minerals may also be due to the fact that the volume and current value of critical ukraine minerals are extremely speculative and are highly debated with official figures based on optimistic estimates Soviet $ 12 trillion.
On the rolling side, Ukraine is known to be rich in natural gas and its ports are strategically located in the Black Sea at the intersection between Europe and Western Asia.
Ukraine must ‘tone it’, sign the US mineral deal, says Waltz
“They have to tonify it and take a difficult look and sign that agreement,” American Security Advisor Mike Waltz told Fox News.
Win-Win?
Despite the public protest against the agreement, Kyiv is not set aside. In addition to seeking to conclude any resources agreements on security guarantees to strengthen its protection, Ukraine’s difficulty needs investment.
If done properly, the agreement can be a winning situation for Ukraine and US, said Oleksandr Kharchenko, managing director of the Energy Industry Research Center, a consultancy in Kyiv.
“In any kind of development in the Ukrainian oil and gas sector, we need money and technology. It’s not something you can get and will generate profit. You need to invest a lot to make money in this business,” he said .
Ukraine’s energy sector is profitable. The State Petroleum and Gas Oil Giant won 32.4 billion Hryvnia ($ 779 million) in profit in the first nine months of 2024 the first half of 2024, despite the war.
State -owned companies have a controlled history of corruption and mismanagement. Large parts of the Ukraine economy have long been dominated by oligarchs. US investors in Ukrainian state -owned enterprises can lead to positive corporate reforms and attract more money, Kharchenko said.
More funding and access to American technology will increase Ukraine’s oil and gas production, he noted. On the other hand, Ukraine will have more gas to maintain itself, expand its impact on the gas market and help replace Russian gas in Europe, an issue that goes on despite EU efforts to diversify.
While it would be “useful for international players, Ukraine’s interests must be saved” in any agreement, a representative of a Ukrainian energy company said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Zelensky has given up on Ukraine’s idea by becoming a pig bank for countries that exploit its natural resources. Speaking to the Turkish CNN on February 19, he stressed that Ukraine wants to be “friends and partners” than a “raw material for any continent”.
A road is offering investment opportunities in exchange for the liberation of occupied territories, where sources such as lithium and gas are found.
“It was wise to propose the majority of (occupied sources) in the US if they are able to help us liberate them,” Zelezniak said.
There is still a question of how the US will provide defensive guarantees in the long run, although the NBC reported that Washington can place troops to maintain resources. There is a fundamental concern that Trump is not interested in the safety of Ukraine as a whole, but rather seeks to exploit a tangible ally.
“It is not in the interest of anyone to see Ukraine in the future being a destroyed land under constant missile and drone bombing by Russia, with some plants or sources of sources preserved by US special forces – like those we saw in Iraq and Syria Until many recently, ”said Roman Sulzhyk, a partner in Ukraine of investment progress, an investment firm.
“A fairer agreement will only include future income, from sources developed with American investment and expertise, and tangible security guarantees – not only for the pages where Americans operate, but for the whole country,” he added.
EU Defense Commissioner pushes against Trump
After the Trump administration accused the European allies of failing to attract their weight in support for Ukraine, Kyiv Independent sat down with EU Protection Commissioner Andrius Kubilius to discuss whether Europe is ready to grow.
Unclear messaging
Part of the reaction to the deal may be due to its messages. If the Trump administration had submitted the agreement as a release or a private-public partnership (PPP), it would have offered another understanding, Hunder said.
“If you come together and say,” Give us this “, then it will be perceived very differently.”
Ukraine is not alien to PPPs. Big institutions such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC) have overseen billions of dollars in projects in recent decades, including in the energy and transport sectors.
Zelezniak agrees that in general, joint ventures of a kind are “a good idea”.
“But it is better to privatize (state -owned enterprises) and sell them to foreign investors,” he said, referring to the sale of UMC Titanium, a state -owned Titan manufacturer who was sold at Cem Ukraine in October 2024.
Since investment in natural resources is a long -term commitment than a short -term profit, Zelezniak emphasizes the need to ensure that the agreement is clear and sustainable. It should not be sensitive to reviews when new governments come to Washington and Kyiv.
There is also a legal question. The US proposed to govern the agreement under New York law, but this may change. Deciding how every part of the agreement will be governed will be governed, especially given the bad reputation of the Ukrainian court system.
Moreover, the Ukrainian Constitution states that resources belong to people, so it is unclear whether the president has the power to even make this agreement. Making this may require constitutional changes.
Every deal will “have to be ratified and explained to the Ukrainian people. If not, it will create a lot of noise and zero investment,” Zhelezniak said.
Liliane Bivings contributed to reporting.
SH.BA provided Ukraine with $ 100 billion in aid, not $ 500 billion, Zelensky says
“We, Ukrainian people, (provided) $ 120 billion, SH.BA and EU – $ 200 billion. We’re talking about weapons, it’s a package of weapons worth $ 320 billion,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky during a conference for press in Kyiv.
